This year is not any different from most years in the sense that college's standouts have to start thinking about their future. Although some of the draft-eligible underclassmen will have more to think about. Forgo future college eligibility for millions of dollars or continue to be worshipped on campus and re-writing the school's record books. I know. I'd have a tough time deciding too.
Actually, it is a tough decision. Prospects have to consider their draft position. The NFL has a sort of slotting system that determines a draftee's contract terms. For example, the #15 pick won't make more money than the #2 pick. So, based on where a guy is likely to be drafted plays a major role in his decision. A guy's position is mostly determined by the draft order of the teams and what their needs will be. If there's an intriguing quarterback prospect that had a great junior year, but the first six teams picking already have quarterbacks on roster, it's not a good situation. His contract could shrink by millions, maybe tens of millions of dollars, simply because he got picked 13th instead of third. I would suggest staying in school for another year to light up the scoreboard and get drafted higher.
When you're an NFL team, you're basically running a business. The franchise's success is based on wins and losses. In order to win, you need to have the best players, which is why the draft is so important. The teams get to bring in talented players that will contribute (or establish) to a winning organization. The players drafted in the first round, particularly the first half of the first round are expected to play and contribute right now. And NFL rookies are compensated based on that expectation. For example, the #1 overall pick in the 2009 draft was Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford. He signed an agreement with the Detroit Lions for a six-year, $72 million dollar contract ($41.7 million guaranteed). It's really a four-year deal, since the last two years are optional, but for that kind of money, that kid better not be a backup on a team that didn't win a game the season before he was drafted.
So let's pretend the Lions have another bad season (I know, try hard to play along). With another bad season, they have another high draft position - let's say third (the Rams and Buccaneers are awful). Do you think they'd take another quarterback? I realize that I've only used one team as an example to illustrate a point, but consider this. Of the three teams that drafted signal-callers in the first round during last April's draft, none of them are likely to make the playoffs (Lions, Jets, Buccaneers) and will be picking relatively high again this year (they currently have a combined record of 9-27).
But the 2011 draft is likely to offer an interesting twist. The NFL and the NFL Players Union will be negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement between now and then. This agreement is likely to include a rookie salary cap. Up to this point, rookie's salaries have only been limited by what their new employer could fit into the salary cap for a rookie that has yet to play a down of professional football. In 2009, the salary cap, under the current salary cap that is set to expire at the end of this season, is $127 million dollars.
For those of you that don't know what a "salary cap" is, here's an explanation. An organization's salary cap is the maximum amount of team compensation, money, property, investments or loans (but not benefits) paid to current or former players (not coaches or other staff) based on current contracts.
The fact that an untested rookie could possibly demand (and get) a more lucrative contract than many proven veteran players is a hotly-debated topic year in and year out, and I'm sure the NFLPA wants to put an end to it. It is my personal opinion that rookie contracts should be incentive-based agreements that pay a base salary with stair-step bonuses with qualifiers that kick in predicated on performance and production, instead of the guaranteed millions based on expectations and hype. But that's a topic for a different day.
Here is a breakdown of a trusted evaluator's breakdown of the best available college players (juniors and seniors) going into this year's uncapped draft. Keep in mind, not all draft-eligible juniors have declared for the draft.
SCOUTS INC.'S TOP 32
| Player | Pos. | School | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Eric Berry* | S | Tennessee | 97 |
| 2. Gerald McCoy* | DT | Oklahoma | 97 |
| 3. Ndamukong Suh | DT | Nebraska | 96 |
| 4. Joe Haden* | CB | Florida | 96 |
| 5. Russell Okung | OT | Okla. State | 96 |
| 6. Derrick Morgan* | DE | Georgia Tech | 96 |
| 7. Rolando McClain* | ILB | Alabama | 96 |
| 8. Trent Williams | OT | Oklahoma | 95 |
| 9. C.J. Spiller | RB | Clemson | 95 |
| 10. Jake Locker* | QB | Washington | 95 |
| 11. Dez Bryant* | WR | Okla. State | 95 |
| 12. Sam Bradford* | QB | Oklahoma | 94 |
| 13. Earl Thomas* | S | Texas | 94 |
| 14. Sergio Kindle | OLB | Texas | 94 |
| 15. Navorro Bowman* | OLB | Penn State | 94 |
| 16. Taylor Mays | S | USC | 93 |
| 17. Jimmy Clausen* | QB | Notre Dame | 93 |
| 18. Jason Pierre-Paul | DE | South Florida | 93 |
| 19. Bruce Carter* | OLB | North Carolina | 92 |
| 20. Arthur Jones | DT | Syracuse | 92 |
| 21. Brandon Spikes | ILB | Florida | 92 |
| 22. Jahvid Best* | RB | California | 92 |
| 23. Jermaine Gresham | TE | Oklahoma | 92 |
| 24. Patrick Robinson | CB | Florida State | 92 |
| 25. Carlos Dunlap* | DE | Florida | 92 |
| 26. Golden Tate* | WR | Notre Dame | 92 |
| 27. Charles Brown | OT | USC | 92 |
| 28. Bryan Bulaga | OT | Iowa | 91 |
| 29. Jonathan Dwyer* | RB | Georgia Tech | 91 |
| 30. Vladimir Ducasse | G | UMass-Amherst | 90 |
| 31. Arrelious Benn* | WR | Illinois | 90 |
| 32. Jared Odrick | DT | Penn State | 90 |
| * denotes draft-eligible junior | |||
The modern NFL draft has seven rounds. There are 32 teams which will result in 256 college players being selected, and given a chance to play football for a living. If I was a draft-eligible college player that was anywhere close to being an NFL talent, I'm coming out of school. There is sure to be lots of money thrown around during the uncapped year, and I would want to get any part of that pie that I could get my hands on!
Some experts don't expect a spending spree following this season due to the current economic situation. I disagree. I think there are going to be some mind-boggling contracts out there for rookies and veterans alike. There were a few college players that were expected to leave school and enter the 2009 draft, but they surprised some people and returned to campus. Guys like Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Brandon Spikes, CJ Spiller and Taylor Mays could have all been 1st round draft picks and playing in the NFL right now. These dudes knew what they were doing. Except Sam Bradford. Sam Bradford, last year's Heisman Trophy winner, hurt his throwing shoulder this season and missed all but about three games. So maybe he should've entered the draft last year. After all, he was coming off the post season that Colt McCoy should've had. Bradford and his Oklahoma Sooners got handled in the BCS National Championship game that McCoy and his Texas Longhorns should've played in, which I believe cost McCoy the Heisman. I think Bradford is overrated and won't amount to much in the League, but that also is a topic for a different day (I truly hope the Rams don't draft this bum).
I think the list of juniors that declare for the draft will be as long as my arm by late January. A guy like Jake Locker, the U of Washington quarterback that is NFL-ready as far as talent goes, could use one more year in school to polish his skills. He hasn't declared at this point, but this kid is ready. He has a strong arm, pocket presence, and the athleticism to escape the rush and be a legit threat to scramble for positive yards.
The upcoming draft is like a costume party with door prizes. Everyone is set to win. The real winners make millions. The losers? $285,000. That's a quarter of a million dollars just for dressing up. What about the guys that don't make the roster? They are delegated to the practice squad for $5200 per week. Hmmm.... Stay in school. Graduate. Get an entry-level job paying what? 30 or 40 grand? Or get paid to workout and play football? Education is priceless, but ignorance is expensive.
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